NO LIMIT HOLDINGS  /  RESEARCH
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE

Maple Finance (SYRUP)

Investment Research — No Limit Holdings

Data as of 2026-07-22 ~19:00 UTC  ·  All figures are live pulls as of that timestamp unless labeled company-reported

Verdict

Opportunity — small/mid conviction, accumulate on weakness

Real institutional credit business trading at distressed-token prices; the new MIP-021 buyback makes the token more investable, but liquidity and value-accrual are still thin.

01 — Valuation

Valuation snapshot

Metric Maple Finance / SYRUP
Price $0.1803
Market cap $209.9M rank #164
FDV ~$224.4M
Circulating / total supply 1.164B / 1.245B 93.5% circulating
1y price return −59.2%
30d price return +28.3%
7d price return −5.5%
Drawdown from 1y high −68.6%
Realized vol (1y, annualized) ~90%
Fees $105.8M annualized DefiLlama
Revenue $13.1M annualized DefiLlama $22.0M LTM official
MCap / fees (P/fees) ~2.0x
MCap / revenue (P/revenue) ~16x DefiLlama ~9.5x on official LTM revenue official ~60x on holders revenue of $3.52M DefiLlama
FDV / revenue ~17.2x DefiLlama
TVL $2.276B DefiLlama
Scale metric AUM $4.53B official Active loans $1.975B DefiLlama MCap / official AUM ~4.6%
Buyback / value accrual 25% of revenue to the Syrup Strategic Fund; MIP-021 rules-based buybacks of 10–30% of monthly revenue for 6 months starting Aug 2026

Figures from combined_metrics.json and the underlying Maple report; rows labeled DefiLlama are on-chain aggregator pulls, rows labeled official are company-reported.


02 — Price action

Charts

SYRUP — daily price, last 365 days

CoinGecko daily closes, 2025-07-23 to 2026-07-22 · USD

SYRUP — drawdown from running 1y high

Percent below the running 365-day high close. 0% = at a new high.

SYRUP — daily price, last 30 days

CoinGecko daily closes, trailing 30 days · USD · +28.3% over the window


03 — Deep dive · SYRUP

Maple Finance — opportunity, sized like a high-beta credit startup

Price
$0.1803
−59.2% 1y · +28.3% 30d
Market cap
$209.9M
#164 · FDV ~$224.4M
AUM (official)
$4.53B
MCap/AUM ~4.6%
MCap / fees
~2.0x
$105.8M annualized

Business overview

Maple (founded 2019, Australia origins) is an on-chain institutional asset manager and credit marketplace. It originates and services overcollateralized stablecoin loans to institutional borrowers — trading firms, market makers, fintech lenders — and packages the yield into products for lenders. Unlike pooled permissionless money markets such as Aave or Morpho, Maple runs an actively underwritten credit book with traditional capital-markets structures: bankruptcy-remote SPVs, senior subordination, independent administration.

Two product lines: Maple Institutional (permissioned credit — secured lending, structured products, bespoke facilities such as the June 2026 Kraken OTC warehouse facility) and Syrup.fi (permissionless DeFi front-end — deposit USDC/USDT/USDG, receive yield-bearing syrupUSDC, syrupUSDT, and since July 2026 syrupUSDG, live on Ethereum and Robinhood Chain). syrupUSD tokens see ~$8.5B in monthly transfer volume per the 1inch integration announcement (2026-07-21).

Scale per the official Q2 2026 update: AUM $4.6B, up 81% YoY; loans outstanding at an all-time high of $1.9B, up 123% YoY; YTD originations $5.4B and $22B+ cumulative since 2022; Q2 revenue $4.4M (+47% YoY); ARR $17.5M; deposits $2.2B with $1.03B net inflows in H1. The book grew ~22% in H1 while the broader DeFi lending market contracted 31%.

Team & backers

Co-founders Sidney Powell (CEO) and Joe Flanagan (Executive Chairman); Matt Collum (CTO) and Ryan O'Shea (COO). Team backgrounds span J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, BlackRock, PIMCO, Galaxy Digital and Amazon.

Disclosed funding is notably lean for a protocol of this scale — about $7.7M total: a $1.3M seed (Dec 2020; Framework, Alameda Research, Stani Kulechov, Kain Warwick, FBG, The LAO), a $1.4M round (Mar 2021; Framework, Polychain), and a $5M strategic round (Aug 2023; BlockTower, Tioga, Room40, Cherry Crypto, Spartan, GSR, Veris, Maven 11, Framework). Alameda's early seed participation is a historical association worth knowing; it did not prevent Maple's post-FTX recovery.

Evolution — a survivor's track record

Tokenomics & value accrual

Valuation discussion

At a $209.9M market cap, SYRUP trades at roughly 2.0x annualized fees ($105.8M), ~16x DefiLlama annualized revenue ($13.1M), ~9.5x official LTM revenue ($22.0M), ~12x official ARR ($17.5M), and ~4.6% of official AUM ($4.53B). On revenue multiples it is the cheapest large-cap "lending with real revenue" token except Sky (a different, stablecoin-issuer model): Aave trades near ~34x annualized revenue and Pendle near ~28x. The token is down 72.5% from its ATH and still trades as if the 2022 undercollateralized default cycle were the base case, despite the pivot to overcollateralized secured lending and a growing AUM base.

The honest counterweight: direct token capture is weaker than the business headline. DefiLlama holders revenue annualized is only $3.52M, so market cap / holders revenue is ~60x. At the current official monthly revenue of $1.29M, the first MIP-021 tier implies only ~$1.55M of annualized buyback capacity; the model becomes much more interesting above $2M monthly revenue (30% tier, ~$7.2M annualized). The valuation case therefore rests on revenue growth plus visible buyback execution — not on multiple compression alone.

Risks (ranked)

Catalysts (next 6–12 months)

Actionable stance: watchlist / accumulate weakness toward the $0.12–0.15 zone. Add only if MIP-021 buybacks are visibly executed and monthly revenue trends back toward/above $1.5M, then $2M. Cut on an adverse Core ruling, a new credit impairment, or failure of the buybacks to materialize.

04 — Falsification

What would change my mind

SYRUP — turns into a stronger buy if
  • Monthly protocol revenue sustains >$1.5M, then >$2M, moving MIP-021 buybacks into higher tiers.
  • The Transparency Dashboard shows SSF reserves growing without starving buybacks.
  • Robinhood Earn and Kraken facilities translate into measurable AUM and revenue.
  • No new credit impairment; the Core dispute resolves without material damages.
SYRUP — turns into an avoid if
  • Revenue falls back toward low single-digit millions annualized while the token still lacks direct capture.
  • A borrower default or collateral issue hits the now-$1.9B loan book.
  • Core litigation produces damages or injunctions beyond syrupBTC.
  • Liquidity deteriorates further.

05 — Methodology

Methodology


06 — Sources

Sources

Full source index from the underlying report. Descriptions preserved from maple/sources/sources.md (compiled 2026-07-22). Links open in a new tab.

Maple Finance / SYRUP Official / primary

Maple Finance / SYRUP Market / on-chain data

  • CoinGecko CLI (paid tier) — market snapshot, 365d/30d/7d price series, OHLC (raw pulls retained in the research repo)
  • DefiLlama API — protocol TVL $2.37B / borrowed $1.91B, 30d fees $9.02M / all-time $141.4M, 30d revenue $1.07M / all-time $17.35M, plus peer revenue pulls (Aave, Morpho, Euler, Ondo, Pendle, Sky)
  • defillama.com/protocol/maple-finance — income statement: Q2 2026 gross protocol revenue $25.67M, earnings $3.16M, token-holder net income $791K (buybacks)
  • Alchemy CLI eth_call totalSupply() — SYRUP 1,244,677,493; syrupUSDC 959,421,480; syrupUSDT 347,235,497; stSYRUP 179,201,668
  • Dune CLI dex.trades query — 30d Ethereum DEX volume for SYRUP ≈ $11.06M

Maple Finance / SYRUP News / third-party